For the last several months Canadian political polls have shown the Conservatives have enjoyed a steady, slight increase in poll numbers while the Liberals have lost roughly the same proportion of support (sfu, hillwatch).
The thing to watch is obviously whether or not this trend continues. Liberal leadership must know that they need to do something, and quick. They are definitely having a hard time staying relevant nationally and are struggling to effectively articulate their vision for Canada as an alternative to the CPC.
And this is coming from a Liberal, mind you.
I believe that many a moderate are willing to hold their nose for the short-to-intermediate term and allow the Conservatives to try and strengthen the economy and get us back on track. How the next few months go are crucial however, as these constituents are keeping a close eye on the numbers and vote on the true state of affairs -they cannot be swayed by spin.
How the recovery plays out can be a game changer. A significantly weak or strong recovery can make the difference between electoral success and defeat for both the Conservatives and the Liberals.